Sunday, January 08, 2006 

Avian flu PANDEMIC!!!

I've recieved numerous emails on the topic, most sounding something like this:

OMG! Teh bird flew (sp?) is here!!!11 We're all gonna die right?? OMG!!!1

Well I assure all that are concerned -- the bird flu isn't nearly as bad as the media portrays it. I see headlines all the time like THE BIRD FLU PANDEMIC IS HERE!!, and I click them, thinking that I am going to read about an outbreak where millions are dying. Instead, I read about 7 people dead in Turkey. Now it's not like I'm saying that the 7 people that are dead don't matter -- no I'm definetely not trying to imply that. It's just that a pandemic is a situation where millions are dying and the disease is spreading like crazy. Our current situation doesn't meet either of the criterion.

When experts say that they are concerned about the bird flu, they don't mean that it is a real danger to any of us. They are saying that it is a slight possibility that the virus could mutate so that it could easily transfer from human to human.

Your average John Doe cannot tell the difference between a deadly virus that he should be afraid of and a deadly virus that he shouldn't have a care about. Take for example, the ebola virus. Sure, it is a deadly virus, and has a very high mortality rate. On top of that, it transfer from human to human. Why aren't we afraid of ebola? Because for the virus to spread, the humans' bodily fluids must make direct contact. Because of this, the virus is incredibly easy to contain. Compare this to smallpox, which before its eradication, was something that we were very afraid of. Smallpox's mortality rate wasn't quite as high as ebola's, but it could spread far more easily. Smallpox spreads in an aerosolized form, meaning that the breath of a patient infected with smallpox can infect everyone in the vicinity. That makes the virus very hard to contain. Now compare both of those with the avian flu. Sure, avian flu has a high mortality rate, but it cannot spread from human to human at ALL. That is why healthcare professionals aren't incredibly afraid of this virus and why you shouldn't be either.

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